Amid concerns of a slow down in the economy, the central bank lowered its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast to 7 per cent for the current fiscal from 7.2 per cent projected earlier.
The MPC revised both its growth and inflation forecasts for the current fiscal year. GDP growth has been revised downwards to 7% from the earlier projection of 7.2%. The MPC expects growth in the range of 6.4-6.7% in the first half of 2019-20 and 7.2-7.5% in the second half.
The decision was guided by GDP growth which slumped to a 5-year low of 5.8% during Q4 FY19. Moreover, the inflation forecasts continue to be. GDP projection has been revised downwards to 7.0% for.
India’s central bank also cut GDP growth forecast for FY20 from 7.2 per cent to 7 per cent. The Reserve Bank of India(RBI) today cut repo rate for the third consecutive time this year to 5.75 per cent from the current 6 per cent amid falling economic growth and uncertain global scenario.
Tanvi Jain, of UBS Securities, told Reuters that headline core price inflation will be under 4% – the lower bound of the rbi. growth forecast for 2019-2020 to 7.2% from an original estimate of 7.4%.
The six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) also lowered its GDP growth forecast to 7 per cent for the current fiscal from 7.2 per cent earlier while marginally increasing its inflation projection to 3-3.1 per cent for the first half of 2019-20, which is within the comfort range of 2-6 per cent set by the government.
The second bi-monthly Monetary Policy Statement of the current fiscal projects the GDP growth rate at 6.4-6.7 per cent till September but expects it to pick up pace to as much as 7.5 per cent in.
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GDP growth fell during the demonetisation and the GST implementation period of 2016-17, undershooting potential growth of 7.1%. We expect FY19 and FY20 CAD to be higher and GDP to be a shade lower.
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Fitch Ratings cut India’s FY19 GDP growth forecast to 7.2% from 7.8% on December 6. The rating agency has also cut growth forecasts for FY20 and FY21 to 7% from 7.3% and 7.1 per cent from 7.3%.
Key forecasts: On inflation, the central bank has lowered its CPI inflation trajectory across its forecast horizon, while on growth, it also cut its FY20 GDP growth forecast to 7.2% from. the RBI.